According to Crisil Research, Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.9 per cent in the fiscal starting April, lower than earlier forecast of 8.1 per cent. Crisil noted that the economy’s modest recovery has been shaped by good luck on crude oil and commodities, and a supportive policy environment. While this is expected to continue, India cannot afford to be third-time unlucky with rains.

The economy has weathered two successive monsoon failures plus damage from unseasonal rains in early 2015 with no deleterious repercussion on inflation and growth. According to the report, growth in the next fiscal will also find mild support from improved transmission of the RBI’s policy rate cuts and the implementation of the salary and pension revisions recommended by the One Rank One Pension Scheme and the Seventh Pay Commission.

Both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have already lowered their global growth forecasts for 2016. As per the Central Statistics Office, Indian economy will grow at a 5-year high of 7.6 per cent in the fiscal ending March, overtaking a slowing China, on the back of improvement in manufacturing and farm sectors.